Pick 'Ems

Here is the opportunity for you to reap the benefits of my hours and hours of wasted time, watching, reading, listening, and thinking about sports. Cash out your kids' college savings, beat down your bookie or licensed gaming institution, and instead of state college send your kids to private school. That's what I'm doing (just kidding, honey). Here are my picks....

lines provided by Caesars-Hilton current as of right now

Philadelphia -3 1/2

I'll admit, for a moment I was almost wrapped up in the Arizona hype--they're the new kids, flashy, the underdogs, and are coming off of two great performances against Atlanta and Carolina. They're a juggernaut, peakin at just the right time. It's destiny, right?

Wrong.

This one will be won by Philly's defense. They will shut down Arizona's run game (shouldn't be tough considering Arizona ranked DFL in the NFL: 73.6 yards per game). They should be able to put pressure on Kurt Warner. And I am assuming they are not, unlike Carolina last week, going to let the best wide receiver in football run all over the field, uncovered.

I expect Brian Westbrook to have a big game. Interesting stat: Arizona is known as the offense that likes to spread it out and throw the football, but Donovan McNabb (517) has more passing yards this postseason than Kurt Warner (491). As the great Chuck D said, "Don't believe the hype" Philly covers:

* Philadelphia 31
Arizona 24

Pittsburgh -6

This is the game that everyone is looking forward to. I've heard all the analogies: it's going to be a war, a heavyweight title bout, a smashmouth-defensive-Dick Butkus-type of game. With the hype surrounding these two defenses you might ask yourself: Will anybody score? Are we about to be witness the greatest defensive struggle ever? Will the energy created by these two unstoppable forces be so spectacular as to, upon impact on a football field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, acutally change the rotation and alter the orbital path of the earth?

As Lee Corso would say, Not so fast my friend.

Baltimore has a good defense. Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Bart Scott, and the vastly under-rated Haloti Ngata, are really, really good. But don't forget that in last week's game, Tennessee was able to move the ball pretty effectively, 391 total yards effectively. Tennessee's problem was turnovers: three times in Baltimore territory. You could make the argument that Baltimore had three take-aways. The point is, Baltimore's defense is not impenetrable. Pittsburgh's offense is good enough that they should be able to move the football and score as long as they can hold onto it. Difference maker will be Santonio Holmes and punt returns.

Baltimore's offense, on the other hand, is a little suspect. They only managed 211 total yard last week against Tennessee. Joe Flacco is still a rookie and no rookie has ever led his team to the championship game. And Baltimore has lost to Pittsburgh twice already in the regular season. Is the third time a charm? Nope...

Baltimore 10
* Pittsburgh 20